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FiscalAlpha monitors stress breadth across 8 independent domains of the financial system. One number tells you whether the conditions that precede crises are present right now — with full source transparency on all 70+ indicators.
Just your email to start — your first alert lands in your inbox.
One product, every skill level
The same interface meets a curious novice and a seasoned strategist where they are — no dumbing down, no overwhelming.
Search in plain English. Every indicator opens with a one-sentence explainer, then five progressive levels that take you from “what is this?” to the methodology under the hood — at your own pace.
Skip the explainers. Jump straight to z-scores, percentile rankings, auction tails, and the contagion model. Drill from the headline SDI to any of 70+ individual series in two clicks.
What makes this different
Every data point comes from official sources — FRED, TreasuryDirect, the Fed, OFR, CFTC, CBO. See the source, last observation date, and normalization method for every indicator. Nothing behind proprietary magic.
The Library doesn’t just show numbers — it teaches the financial system. Learn what SOFR is, why it matters, what happened during Lehman, and how it connects to mortgage rates through the contagion network.
The SDI is a coincident indicator, not a crystal ball. We don’t claim to predict the next crisis — we show you, clearly and daily, whether the conditions that precede crises are present right now.
No account needed to see the SDI, explore all 70+ indicators, run crisis comparisons, or use the contagion network. Give an email only when you want alerts — and get real value for free.
The proof
Tested on every trading day since 2005: when the Stress Diffusion Index leaves Normal, the following month has been about twice as rough. It was in Normal at 7 of 7 market peaks, and we show that too.
The month after each reading
How hard the S&P 500 swung (annualised volatility)
Chance of a 5%+ fall
5,415 trading days, 2005–2026. A coincident indicator, not a forecast.
Pricing
No credit card. No trial clock. Explore everything before you decide.
Starts with 7 days of Premium — no card.
For the engaged investor.
For professionals and advisors.
For firms and research desks.
One email when the Stress Diffusion Index moves out of its Normal band. The month that follows has been rougher for markets. It is a gauge of present stress, not a forecast. Unsubscribe anytime.
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